According to Deloittle’s Duncan Stewart, 2015 will mark the tipping point for near-field communication (NFC)-enabled smartphone in-store payments.
Today Stewart and his team released Deloitte’s 2015 Canadian Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions in Toronto and it provided an outlook on the 10 most important trends for Canada in the technology, media and telecommunications industry over the next 12 to 18 months.
According to the report, now in its 14th year, in 2015 about five percent of the 600 million NFC-equipped smartphones worldwide will be used to make an in-store NFC payment at least once a month, more than a 1,000 percent increase from 2014. And Stewart believes this trend will make its way to Canada at the end of 2015.
“Canadian smartphones are already being used to check balances, transfer funds and transact online, which indicates that consumers are comfortable with using their phones to handle money. But almost no one used their phones for contactless in-store payments at the register,” said Duncan Stewart, Director of TMT Research at Deloitte in Canada.
“2015 will be the first year in which all of the requirements for mainstream mobile payments – satisfying financial institutions, merchants, consumers and device vendors – have been sufficiently addressed.”
Check out all 10 TMT Predictions below:
1) In-store mobile payments will (finally) gain momentum – The end of 2015 will mark the tipping point for the use of mobile phones for NFC-enabled in-store payments in Canada. It will be the first year in which the multiple prerequisites for mainstream adoption – satisfying financial institutions, merchants, consumers and device vendors – have been sufficiently addressed. In 2015, about five percent of the base of 600 million NFC equipped smartphones worldwide will be used to make an in-store NFC payment at least once a month, compared to less than half a percent of about 450 million NFC phones in mid-2014. In-store mobile payments in the Canadian market are likely to be slower than the US, depending on when various payment services are introduced, but 56 percent of Canadians are not interested in paying with a smartphone[i]. It remains to be seen if they will change their minds.
2) For the first time, the smartphone upgrade market will exceed one billion. 1.4 billion smartphones will sell worldwide in 2015, but over a billion of them will be upgrades – new phones for those who already have one. The refresh cycle may be lengthening, but screen size, speed, storage, software and design will drive growth for smartphone refreshes. In Canada, more than 5 million smartphone sold will likely be upgrades
3) Print is not dead, at least for print books – Sales from print books will be at least four times the sales of eBooks globally. eBooks have not substituted print books in the same way that sales of CDs, print newspapers and magazines have declined. Young people (age 18-34) are as attached to print books as their elders and read at about the same rate than older demographics, and they are willing to pay for them.
4) The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending on TMT – Millennials who are 18-34 years old in Canada will spend an average of $750 for content, both traditional and digital. With 9 million millennials, that’s nearly $7 billion in sales for the Canadian media industry. What are millennials spending on? Pay TV, music, computer games, books, live sports, streaming video, and even print newspapers. In an Ipsos survey, commissioned by Deloitte, more Canadians aged 18-32 increased or spent the same amount of money this year than last on books (84 percent), live music (83 percent) or live sports (92 percent) relative to GenX-ers (78 percent, 76 percent, 82 percent respectively) or Boomers (78 percent, 73 percent, 76 percent respectively).
5) Click and collect booms: a boon for the consumer, a challenge for retailers. The number of click and collect locations in Europe will reach half a million in 2015, a 20 percent increase on the previous year. Click and collect provides shoppers with the option to pick up items purchased online from locations such as a special section in a store, or a secure locker located in a transit station or a shopping mall. It is prevalent in Europe, but just starting to be trialed in Canada, even though the concept was pioneered by a Canadian company back in the Dotcom era.
6) The connectivity chasm deepens as gigabit Internet adoption rockets – Globally, the number of homes with broadband Internet will grow by about two percent to 715 million, and average broadband speeds in most countries will increase by 20 percent. But variations in broadband speed in homes will be significant. The top decile of homes in some markets will have five times the average speed of those in the bottom decile. Factors unique to each home from the thickness of walls, age of a router, time of day and browsing habits of neighbours will determine the actual speeds attained at each broadband-connected device. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians get broadband speeds of more than 50 Mbps, but even more have realized ‘broadband’ speeds of less than 5 Mbps.
7) The end of the consumerization of IT? In 2015, the pendulum of technology adoption will begin to swing back to the enterprise market, reversing a decade long trend that went the other way – when mass adoption of technologies like large screen smartphones and tablets started with consumer adoption first.
8) The Internet of things really is things, not people – In 2015, over 60 percent of the one billion global wireless IoT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises – despite media focus on consumers controlling their thermostats, lights, and appliances (ranging from washing machines to tea kettles). The IoT-specific hardware will be worth $10 billion, but the services enabled by the devices will be worth about $70 billion.
9) 3D printing is a revolution: Just not the revolution you think – In 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, but it is unlikely that there will be a “factory in every home.” Deloitte estimates about 80 percent of the value of all 3D printers will be for companies instead of consumers, meaning the real revolution will be in the enterprise market.
10) Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television – The total time spent watching online short-form video clips and programming of less than 20 minutes in length will represent less than three percent of all video seen in the year, both in Canada and globally. However, viewers of short form video may be more engaged and less passive than viewers of traditional long form video, meaning that ads for short form video may generate higher sales with a more-engaged audience.
Deloitte’s TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, global leaders and more than 8,000 Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners. Over the last five years, Deloitte was more than 79 percent accurate with its TMT predictions.
Not in Toronto? Check out Deloitte’s TMT predictions during their 12-stop Canadian road show. Sign up to attend an event here.